Coronary Heart Disease Attributable to Passive Smoking: CHD Policy Model
James M. Lightwood, PhD, Pamela G. Coxson, PhD, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, MD, Lawrence W. Williams, MS, Lee Goldman, MD
Background: Passive smoking is a major risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD), and existing estimates are out of date due to recent and substantial changes in the level of exposure.
Objective: To estimate the annual clinical burden and cost of CHD treatment attributable to passive smoking.
Outcome measures:
Annual attributable CHD deaths, myocardial infarctions (MI), total CHD events, and the direct cost of CHD treatment.
Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation estimated the CHD events and costs as a function of the prevalence of CHD risk factors, including passive-smoking prevalence and a low (1.26) and high (1.65) relative risk of CHD due to passive smoking. Estimates were calculated using the CHD Policy Model, calibrated to reproduce key CHD outcomes in the baseline Year 2000 in the U.S.
Results: At 1999–2004 levels, passive smoking caused 21,800 (SE2400) to 75,100 (SE8000) CHD deaths and 38,100 (SE4300) to 128,900 (SE14,000) MIs annually, with a yearly CHD
treatment cost of $1.8 (SE$0.2) to $6.0 (SE$0.7) billion. If recent trends in the reduction in the prevalence of passive smoking continue from 2000 to 2008, the burden would be reduced by approximately 25%–30%.
Conclusions: Passive smoking remains a substantial clinical and economic burden in the U.S.
(Am J Prev Med 2009;xx(x):xxx) © 2009 American Journal of Preventive Medicine
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